In a booming section of the internet, gamblers do not restrict their bets to sports teams and horses. They also bet on the possibility of Israel launching strikes against Gaza, the U.S. election results, the possible return of Jesus Christ, and the number of tweets Elon Musk might post on a given day.
These bets are placed on prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, where speculators bet on the outcomes of real world events including wars, the Oscars, ongoing court cases, gold prices, government proceedings, and even the local weather.
Polymarket users are seen betting on the return of Jesus Christ
| Photo Credit:
Polymarket on X
How do prediction markets work?
A prediction market is a platform where users buy units of a ‘probable event’ to make a profit when that event happens (or not). Generally, users can fund their trading accounts through crypto, credit/debit cards, or bank transfers. A platform fee may or may not be charged. Once set up, users can browse topics such as science, sports, culture, finance, etc. to find an event they want to bet on.
Kalshi and Polymarket both claim to be the largest prediction market platforms. For transactions, Polymarket uses the USDC stablecoin—a non-official cryptocurrency pegged to the value of the US Dollar—via the Polygon network.
Take a real question from Polymarket, as of February 4: “Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?” Here, the answer ‘Yes’ was worth 19 cents at the time, while ‘No’ was worth 82 cents. Clearly, users were betting on the latter outcome. Users choose to buy ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ “shares,” and these values may continue to change based on new developments. A Polymarket calculator showed that buying $100 worth of ‘Yes’ shares meant the user would get $499.43 in case anyone was jailed due to the Epstein disclosures. If they bought $100 worth of ‘No’ shares, they would get $121.95 in case the situation panned out as they predicted. Remember the “unit” prices can change drastically at any time. Users can also choose to sell their “shares” before the stipulated deadline, in case they want to cash in their profits or cut their losses.
Prediction markets are surging in popularity because of their design, ease, and social media virality. Kalshi and Polymarket give speculators the confidence to bet on real-world events they are familiar with, instead of forcing them to research unfamiliar asset classes or learn about technical investment options and indicators.
Zooming out, prediction markets claim that such economies are focused on crowdsourced truth or crowd wisdom, and that there is less chance of bias and deception, since a large number of people bet on outcomes they truly believe will happen.
Regarding the controversial Middle East-related prediction markets that allow bets on future air strikes, Polymarket’s website stated: “After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not”.
Kalshi tells its users that they “have the ability to make the same smart trades and strategic investments that were once the exclusive domain of the financial elite”.
Why are prediction markets being criticised?
Those opposing prediction market platforms list risks including the promotion of irresponsible gambling, people being encouraged to bet on violence, the rapid spread of false news, and the potential for insider trading due to powerful individuals becoming involved in sensitive markets where privileged information results in profits.
In January 2025, Kalshi announced that Donald Trump Jr. had joined as a strategic advisor. Mr. Trump Jr. claimed on X that people close to him used Kalshi during the election night to know that Trump had won “hours ahead of the fake news media”. In August, media outlets reported that the Trump Jr.-linked venture capital firm 1789 Capital invested in Polymarket, and that he had joined its advisory board.
Both Kalshi and Polymarket are also active on social media platforms like Elon Musk-owned X and Meta-owned Instagram, where they post clickbait-style news snippets to their huge followings and depict their users’ bets as though they are fact-based statistics.
Moreover, both Polymarket and Kalshi have published fake news in the past. In fact, Amazon’s Jeff Bezos once disputed Polymarket’s claim that he asked Gen Z entrepreneurs to get “real world jobs” at McDonalds or Palantir before starting a business. Meanwhile, the Axios outlet reported that Kalshi falsely posted about U.S. and Denmark discussions, leading to an official clarification from Denmark.
Are prediction markets regulated?
This is a grey area. Prediction markets are regulated in some jurisdictions while banned in others. Kalshi reported it was regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), but it faces restrictions and legal challenges in multiple U.S. states. Meanwhile, 33 countries are completely restricted from accessing Polymarket, including the U.S., Germany, UK, and Singapore.
Prediction markets are also sparking interest in India. In recent months, multiple Reddit users have created threads to ask whether betting via platforms such as Polymarket is legal in India. Other Redditors explored ways to make money off prediction markets without attracting legal scrutiny.
Published – February 18, 2026 07:59 am IST
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