The ban on Indian airlines and aircraft from entering the Pakistani airspace has been extended by Islamabad by another month—till the early morning of March 24—as per a fresh notice to airmen (NOTAM) issued by Pakistan’s aviation authorities. India, too, is expected to reciprocate soon and extend its ban on Pakistani airlines and aircraft for a similar period, which would take the neighbours’ reciprocal airspace closures into their eleventh month.
The diplomatic standoff in the wake of the Pahalgam terror attack in April last year evolved into a monthly ritual of tit-for-tat airspace closures. While foreign airlines can still traverse both airspaces, the two neighbours remain strictly off-limits to each other’s airlines and aircraft, which has impacted Indian airlines operationally and financially far more than Pakistani carriers.
The fresh NOTAM issued by Pakistan is similar to the previous ones, except for the effective duration of airspace closure. Islamabad will keep the Pakistani airspace closed to Indian registered aircraft and aircraft operated, owned or leased by Indian airlines and operators, including military flights, till 05:29 AM India time on March 24.
With the relations between New Delhi and Islamabad worsening after the Pahalgam terror attack, Pakistan closed its airspace on April 24. Initially for one month, the closure banned Indian aircraft and airlines from overflying Pakistan. India responded on April 30 by closing its airspace to Pakistani aircraft and airlines. Since then, both countries have extended airspace closures for each other’s airlines and aircraft one month at a time.
Pakistan has issued its latest NOTAM extending the airspace closure a few days before the February 24 expiration of the earlier notice. India’s current ban on Pakistani aircraft is also set to expire on February 24, and India’s aviation authorities are expected to issue a fresh NOTAM to extend the closure by another month before the current notice lapses.
Around 800 weekly flights—departures and arrivals—operated by Indian airlines have been affected due to the closure of Pakistani airspace. These flights, mostly between North India and destinations in regions like West Asia, the Caucasus, Europe, the UK, and eastern North America, are being forced to take longer routes as they cannot use the Pakistani airspace.
This leads to several operational challenges like increased flight durations with journeys extended by anywhere from 15 minutes to several hours depending on the distance and location of the destination, in addition to higher fuel consumption and increased complexity in crew and flight scheduling. In some cases, flights are forced to take refueling stops overseas; flights on some routes have also been suspended. Ultimately, the operational challenges inflate the airlines’ costs. Tata group airline Air India had estimated that the Pakistani airspace closure could cost it around Rs 4,000 crore on an annualised basis, it is learnt.
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The impact of India’s airspace closure has been rather insignificant on Pakistan as Pakistan International Airlines (PIA), the country’s flag carrier, has a limited international presence, unlike major Indian carriers that have been expanding their international network steadily. According to data from aviation analytics company Cirium, only about six PIA flights per week—those traveling between Kuala Lumpur and Lahore or Islamabad—routinely flew over India before these airspace closures took effect.
In contrast, all major Indian carriers operate international flights to countries west of India, and many of these previously overflew Pakistan. Air India serves destinations across West Asia, Europe, the UK, and North America. IndiGo flies to West Asia, Turkey, the Caucasus, and Central Asia, and Europe. With the closure of the Pakistani airspace, IndiGo was forced to suspend flights from Delhi to the Central Asian cities of Almaty and Tashkent because these routes were beyond the operational range of its narrow-body aircraft fleet. Air India Express, Akasa Air, and SpiceJet also operate international flights to West Asia.
The financial implications for Indian airlines are substantial. When Pakistan previously closed its airspace for over four months in 2019, Indian carriers collectively incurred estimated losses of around Rs 700 crore. Air India was the most severely affected Indian carrier at that time, as it operated more west-bound international flights and was, and remains, the sole Indian airline with ultra-long-haul services to North America. But in recent years, other Indian airlines, particularly IndiGo, have also expanded their international networks.
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