Even as agriculture, along with purchase of Russian oil, has emerged as a key sticking point in the trade talks between India and the United States, here’s an interesting fact: Trade in farm produce between the two countries is actually booming and poised to touch a new record this year.
During January-June 2025, India’s imports of agricultural products from the US were, at $1,693.2 million, a whopping 49.1% more than the $1,135.8 million for the same six months of the last calendar year. India’s agricultural exports to the US, too, were up 24.1%, from $2,798.9 million in January-June 2024 to $3,472.7 million in January-June 2025 (see chart).
With US President Donald Trump doubling the tariff on import of goods from India to 50 per cent on Wednesday, the impact remains to be seen, but the trends so far suggest two-way farm trade at least surpassing previous highs.
If the current growth rates hold, India’s agricultural exports to the US could top $7.7 billion, and that of the US to India could be over $3.5 billion in 2025.
The US’s exports to India have been led by tree nuts — mainly almonds and pistachios — which were valued at $1.1 billion-plus in 2024, and registering further 42.8% annual growth during the first six months of this year.
The other three big-ticket items are ethanol, soyabean oil and cotton.
Ethanol exports from the US to India, worth over $420 million last year, are basically for manufacturing alcohol-based chemicals, medicines and other industrial uses. The US wants India to open up imports of ethanol also for fuel use, i.e. blending with petrol and diesel. India has been resisting that, just as much as it is not allowing imports of genetically modified (GM) maize and soyabean.
Story continues below this ad
US farmers mostly grow only GM maize (corn) and soyabean. India currently permits imports of non-fuel ethanol and oil, produced from GM corn and soyabean respectively, but not the whole grain and oilseed as such.
Although the trade negotiations between the two sides are stuck due to India not yielding on GM crops, US exports of both corn-derived ethanol and soyabean oil to India have posted strong growth. The huge jump in soyabean oil exports from the US this year is likely to be sustained by India’s move, on May 31, to slash its import duty from 27.5% to 16.5%. Cotton exports from the US have also been growing on the back of India turning into a net importer of the natural fibre.
India’s agricultural exports to the US are somewhat more diversified. While seafood (primarily frozen shrimp) has been the top item, there are others as well — from spices and essential oils to basmati rice, processed fruits & vegetables and baked foods — that have been doing well, with annual shipment value exceeding $200 million each.
It’s not clear how much of all these exports would be affected, especially with the new Trump tariff.
Story continues below this ad
Take seafood, where India’s exports of $2,483.8 million in 2024 was just behind Canada ($3,956.9 million) and Chile ($3,030.1 million), and ahead of Indonesia ($1,907.9 million), Vietnam ($1,790.4 million) and Ecuador ($1,616.4 million). As of now, the 50% tariff on India is above that of all these competitors: Chile (10%), Ecuador (15%), Indonesia (19%), Vietnam (20%) and Canada (35%).
While seafood exports from India have remained buoyant, growing by 32.5% year-on-year in January-June, sustaining that may not be easy as the tariff differentials bite. But the fact that agriculture trade per se between India and the US is booming should be some consolation in the present situation where talks are at a standstill.
© The Indian Express Pvt Ltd
.